What this is
Nailbiter answers one question for people with no team in the game: which game is worth your evening? Every day, for every league we cover, three things: picks (upcoming games ranked by the Nailbiter score), the hipsters’ choice (the game the main list ignores, with the reason), and verdicts on finished games that never reveal a result.
The Nailbiter score
0 to 100, deterministic, no model writes it. Closeness comes from the betting market (de-vigged moneylines; in soccer the draw is set aside and the two sides compared, in hockey a regulation draw counts as half a win each because overtime follows). Before a market opens on a soccer or hockey game, closeness comes from the two teams’ points per game and the line says so. Quality is the strength of both teams with the weaker one weighted. Stakes are rankings, table position and what the game decides. Rivalry is a curated table per league. Pace is the expected total, form is the last five results. The number is a neutral’s expected value of sitting down for this one.
A game becomes a pick at 40. Below that we show the best available and point you to the slate.
Verdicts
Finished games are rated worth it, maybe or skip from how the game moved: the swing of the win-probability chart where one exists, the goal timeline where it does not. Verdicts are listed in start order and never ranked against each other, no score, no winner, no margin, no overtime, nothing that gives away what happened. Game pages hide the result behind a control you choose to open.
Sources
Fixtures, results and standings: football-data.org (Premier League, Championship, Champions League, Bundesliga, La Liga), CollegeFootballData (college football), the NHL’s public API, Liiga’s public API, stats.swehockey.se (SHL: schedule, period scores and the table), The Odds API (Veikkausliiga fixtures and final scores) with Veikkausliiga standings from Wikipedia’s league table, ESPN (NFL, 2. Bundesliga, and broadcast listings). Odds: a consensus of bookmakers via The Odds API; prices are shown as probabilities and never linked. Ratings: ESPN FPI, SP+, ClubElo, league tables. Thank you to the maintainers of the open ones.
Some verdicts rest on less: SHL goals are known only by period, and Veikkausliiga has only the final score, so its verdicts are cautious and rarely say worth it.
TV listings
Pick your market at the top of any page: Finland, Sweden, Germany, the UK, the US, or Other for the league’s own site. The choice stays in this browser; on a first visit we guess it from your time zone. Without scripts every market shows in one line.
Outside the US a listing is who holds the rights this season, from a table we keep by hand: league by league and market by market, the service, whether it shows every game or a selection, and how sure we are. UK broadcasters may not show Saturday 3pm kickoffs live, and the game page says so. In the US it is the network listed for that game by ESPN or the NHL. Each game page has the whole table under Where to watch.
Every row carries a review date. Once a month a check compares the table with the Premier League’s list of its broadcasters and with Wikipedia’s broadcaster lists, and a person applies the changes. Corrections sent through the corrections form are reviewed monthly too.
Conventions
American leagues read away at home with away-home scores; European leagues read home v away with home-away scores. Times are shown in each league’s own zone, and in yours when scripts are on.
Nailbiter is made in Helsinki. No model writes this site.